Estonian real estate market in 2008 -

admin | 125 follow-up(s) | 02.01.2008 16:31

What prgnoses are for real estate market this year?
Is it good to sell or good to buy?

Brenda | 03.11.2009 17:21

Question for all of you who have used an agent to sell your properties in Estonia. If the agent DOESN'T sell you house within the allotted contract period - say, 6 months or a year, and the contract ends with no sale, do you need to pay them anyway? In the States you usually don't, but I don't know what the practice is here.

Pal | 29.10.2009 10:21

It is hard for me to see any reasons for the Estonian RE market to be going up, at lest until the end of February. Most likely it to be going down during this period.

H | 15.10.2009 10:43

And what does everyone think of the market for fall 2009????

Zand | 01.08.2009 23:48

"We have dropped our prices several hundred thousand kroons already, but we can't go any further because we owe more than what we could sell it for."

I don't want to be rude - but who cares how much you owe? If nobody wants to buy your flat, you are asking too much, it's as simple as that.

Brenda | 19.06.2009 23:04

Noyan,

For real estate that is up for auction or going back to the bank, go to www.varad.ee

Brenda

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Brenda (19:07)

Brenda | 15.06.2009 19:07

I am selling an apartment in Kalamaja, but it is only 33 m2. We have dropped our prices several hundred thousand kroons already, but we can't go any further because we owe more than what we could sell it for. My husband would rather wait it out than to owe money to the bank for something we don't even own anymore. It could be that others are in the same situation - not necessarily too proud to lower the price any more but they can't afford to lower the price more. (But not so desperate that they can't wait it out). When someone says they are looking to buy a property as an investment, that usually means they want the property "dirt cheap". But many sellers here are selling their homes, not investment properties. They need to get the real price that it's valued at. But if you do want homes that are trying to sell quickly, look at www.kv.ee and go to the left side of the page, to "ready, auctions". Those are the ones who are trying to sell quickly or have to because of bankruptcy.

I have always told my husband that I should go into the real estate business. If I was an agent here, I would work my behind off to make phone calls and gather flats to show to customers. The only problem is, agents here don't work together like they do in the States. They have contracts for selling apartments - by them and their firms only, and only they show those apartments. They don't show each others' apartments - if they did, they might sell a few more and have happy, satisfied clients as well.

Good luck in your search for your property!

Hank | 11.06.2009 17:27

Estonians typically are proud and the laws will not allow people to declare bankruptcy and walk away from bad loans as in the US. So the high prices remain and we all wait for the apartments to end up with a bailiff. Most are sold at about 30% of there asking price.

NOYAN | 10.06.2009 17:12

Hi Everybody,

I am trying to buy a small flat around 57-65 sqm, in the Center of Tallinn mainly as an investment.

I am pretty much disappointed with the sellers apparent refusal to drop their first prices to something reasonable.
Moreover, It is quite hard for me to comprehend Estonian Real Estate Agents, as they do not make any efforts to keep you as their customers ! Instead of just showing 1 flat, which actually I see on the internet, they could have just collected similar flats and rush to show them to potential buyer/customers, like in every civilized competitive market.

Any good tips on how to find the REAL SELLERS who are actually interested in selling?

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Joshua (15:23)

Joshua | 10.06.2009 15:23

While all the Economical Indicators are showing a stable decline in economy and unemployment rates are increasing, howcome we still can talk about high property prices !

Come on Estonia, Wake Up !
instead of spending 27-28.000 eek/ sqm in center Tallinn, I would rather add another USD 1-2.000 /sqm and buy in Manhattan :-)

Zand | 17.05.2009 11:02

GP, with unemployment skyrocketing and economy nose-diving, there's simply no chance of any quick pick-up in 2010. Your "certain Developers" better save their pennies - the ones that are left.

In Estonia, there's huge surplus of high-quality office premises as well as residential properties which are too expensive for Estonians (both companies and consumers).

GP | 13.05.2009 17:08

I cannot give too much away but there are certain Developers that may be about to kick off the Estonian property market again... I have links to at least one.
Those with land stand by ..... 2010 will start a fairly quick pick up don't underestatment the power of property. The only thing that's changed is the director of where people want to put there money and who with.

WeedEST | 13.05.2009 00:34

Who was sayng that 30% collapse is not real?
Here it comes =)) 2009
Think more... fovard

Zand | 03.04.2009 00:01

"I am an owner/investor and I can sit and wait for 20 years before I rent out my flat."

Oh yes... Only Estonian "investors" sit and wait for 20 years before renting out their flat. Try to calculate annual profit... The real estate is still expensive in Estonia.

Jones | 30.03.2009 05:55

I like how people on this board think houses will continue to crash, also giving low offers to people renting out flats is showing they are clever.

Lets be realistic here...Are wages falling at the same speed as the housing market ? Are restaurants dropping prices ? Food getting cheaper ? Airline costs dropping ? Once this panic selling is over and people realize construction costs continue to be rising the glory days of cheap rents will be over.

I am an owner/investor and I can sit and wait for 20 years before I rent out my flat. Seeing people offer me 40% below a mortgage only says one thing to me ....They have no idea.

Patience all you home owners our day will come when the renters who didn't buy in this dip will be knocking at our doors.......Can you say "Three month deposit please"

Oscar | 20.03.2009 07:46

Hi,
I was building a house in Keila in 2004/2005. House is 240m2 and land plot is 1400m2, in beginning of 2005 before the house finished I got a valuation of 3 000 000eek. After this evaluation I was putting in aprox. 500 000eek in order to finish the house, garden, gate, roadstones ++++. This week I callled a real estate broker to ask what I could expect if I made a new valuation today and she told me that statisticly the prices was down to 2003 level and I could not expect a valuation higer than 2 500 000eek !!!
Is the situation really so bad ??
My neighbour sold his house last week, this house is 115m2 and land plot is 700-800m2. This house was sold for 1 890 000, I think ??

Didrik | 28.01.2009 13:40

Lola, a outlook from 25 of November last year is already out of date.

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Didrik (22:31)

Lola | 26.01.2009 00:51

Hi everyone,
it is always nice to read through the nice debates on this forum...however, since I am a fact finding kind of gal; I also sometimes like to look at what the financial experts are saying (at least those who make it realistic for most of us to even dream of owning a house -->Banks).
So, without much further ado, I present you with Nordea's latest econimic outlook for the baltic region...Enjoy ;).

http://www.nordea.com/Corporate++Inst...

Swedboy | 20.01.2009 00:57

Maxwell.....the best thing to do would be buy before prices start rise up again ;-).........you must be joking.....
The prices will fall so much more......so much more that none of us on this forum can even image....

The crisis on the realastate market here in Estonia has just started!

Maxwell | 19.01.2009 00:16

yeah,nobody know where such a crisis will bring us...definitely we won't see prices back to 2oo7 in the future...the best thing to do would be buy before prices start rise up again ;-)

Didrik | 11.01.2009 22:31

Maxwell I belive that price level can reach 10K sg/m2 before the summer.

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Didrik (10:57)

Maxwell | 02.01.2009 20:06

hello,i bought a flat in pohja area last sept 07,the worst time to buy a house...my flat quickly lost value,because for 32k EEK/sq m. was clearly overpriced,it is rented and i do not have any mortgage to pay..i have seen flats for 16k EEK sq/m in the same area,like maleeva or toostuse,would be a good idea to get something there to spread the possible loss?i am talking about brand new flats.can prices per sq. m. can go even lower than that?

Didrik | 27.12.2008 10:57

Dear Edwin, I do not think that this is the right forum for that kind of questions and what is a reasonable price is maybe impossible to figure out.

Edwin | 30.11.2008 16:47

I am looking for some land in the area of Rongu, \puka\Aakre, it can be forest or just agricultural land without building permit. Can someone tell me a reasonable price for this area\\ on different site's \i do see a lot of high prices and \i would like to know if that is reasonable

Zand | 23.11.2008 12:31

Didrik, I've noticed the same. Now many people are still thinking they can get the price they quote - the problem is that old ads are not noticed so easily. This is of course not true and on the next round we'll see lower prices. Still the prices will be too high, they'll come down on sustainable levels when people have to sell their properties.

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Zand (23:43)

Didrik | 18.11.2008 16:45

Soren, I do not even think that people who put their apartment for sale today realize that they have to lower the price. I see everyday new ads with the same price as for a year ago.

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Didrik (21:06), Didrik (21:41)

Soren | 12.11.2008 19:46

Thanks for everyones view. I was actually not looking at the oldest adds, as the asking price seems to high on those, probably because people have given up and not bothered lowering the price or more likely it seems because they will not sell at anything less than 2007 prices. Personally I can't make a decision on what I would like to pursue before I roughly know the price I will be paying. I mean what is the point calling on ten flats to find out eight won't lower the price and the last two aren't interesting after you get more details?

On the other hand people who put their flat up for sale now realise they will have to set a realistic price or they might as well not bother. That's my theory anyway.

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Soren (17:42), Soren (19:38)

Zand | 08.11.2008 23:43

Brenda, no offense - but if you want to get the quoted price for the flat you listed above, you have to move it to Toompea.

There are plans to develop Kopli and it would help Kalamaja, but given the financial crises this development will take a loooong time. There's plenty of empty office space in downtown Tallinn and Estonians can't afford the empty housing which is already available - so new projects like Kopli are just dreams in the air.

Paul | 06.11.2008 16:41

Hi Soren, absolutely, the apartments that are listed the longest obviously are not selling. I would suggest you call on the owners direct and see if they are open to this approach. You have nothing to lose.

Brenda | 04.11.2008 12:17

Hi Soren,

My husband and I have a flat for sale in Kalamaja. It's newly remodeled and in a good location. We are definitely interested in selling, but unfortunately we can't lower the price or then we'd be losing money. And since it's not an emergency for us to sell, we aren't interested in selling and losing money just for the sake of selling. But, I believe it is a good investment for the future because prices in Kalamaja will be going up in the next few years.
Let me know if you are interested in looking at it:
www.kv.ee/919201

Good luck in your search!

Soren | 03.11.2008 17:42

Hi guys,

I am looking to potentially buy a small flat in Tallinn in the next 6 to 9 months mainly as an investment, although I am not expecting it to give a huge yield in the first couple of years. However I am hugely frustrated with the sellers apparent refusal to drop asking prices to something reasonable. There are 1000s of flats that fit my criterias adjusting for overvaluation, but after enquiring on a few of them, I grew tired of the sellers expecting 2007 prices minus 10%. Seems like people are ready to just hold on and hope they are lucky.

Any good tips on how to find the sellers who are actually interested in selling? What about repossesions?

We have had some success through personal contacts, but in the end it wasn't quite right.

Andrew | 23.10.2008 18:18

Well, I was expecting to leave Estonia but did not. I moved into a new apartment in the city center for significantly less than I had expected to pay a few months ago.

Gonna be a while before buying is going to outrun renting (as long as I keep saving the difference)

Brenda | 22.10.2008 23:32

Hi Paul and Didrik,
Nice to hear from you guys. I read the BBN every day and what Estonian news that I can understand and everything is only "doom and gloom". It would just be nice to hear something positive once in awhile. Hoping someone had a "ray of sunshine" amidst all the ugliness. I did read about the interest rate reductions and that's nice to hear.
When our house sells you guys will be the first to know! ;-)
Regards, Brenda

Paul | 22.10.2008 23:09

Hi Brenda, the same as everywhere in the world, people are just waiting for a general consensus that the world economic situation has bottomed out and that the only way is up. Interest rate reductions may start positive sentiment again but I think we will be waiting a while yet before a recovery is 'announced'!

Didrik | 22.10.2008 21:06

Dear Brenda i do not think you will find that many good stories this days. The real estate market almost dead if you see to how many sales it is and how many objects that are for sale. It always difficult to find buyer on a down market. The buyer is waiting for the price to fall.

Brenda | 18.10.2008 21:34

Checking in with everyone - how are things going? Anyone having success renting or selling? Any good stories to tell?

philfaebuckie | 27.09.2008 11:38

The market has been overheated for far too long and a major readjustment has been long overdue.

The only factor that supported increasing prices in the Estonian real estate market was the EXPECTATION that prices MUST go up. This is completely counter-intuitive to any known and successful economic model and as such completely defies gravity!

Now that the bubble has burst the nay-sayers still refuse to believe the evidence of their own eyes. Owners have to understand that property is like any other investment - values can go down as well as up. Flatly refusing to acknowledge the market demonstrates ignorance of fundamental economic priniples.

I recently went to inspect a property on behalf of a foreign investor and although this house was probably decent value the real estate broker insisted on sending me lists of over-priced rubbish that could never in a million years be described as investment property - he was just offering the biggest commission earners. A friend of mine suggested to a broker recently that he ought to accept a lower commission if he wished to finalise a particularly tight deal but the completely bizarre and idiotic reply was that the broker felt his commission should in fact be higher due to the amount of work that had to be done. As long as this attitude continues there is no hope!

Estonia faces a critical point in the development of an intelligent and mature real estate market and this really involves taking the leading role in market pricing out of the hands of the amateur real estate bandits and placing it firmly in the control of qualified professionals. I have personally had 3 properties valued in the past 18 months and the process has been that an employee of the real estate broker has turned up and taken a handful of photos. Then a day or 2 later the agency has issued a "report" valuing the property. Crucially this valuation is based solely on the value of other properties that have sold recently. There is no testing of any of the physical aspects of the construction - is there damp, is their mould behind the walls, is the electrical system adequate and countless other points.

The valuation procedure should be placed firmly under the auspices of chartered surveyors - individuals who are trained to be able to assess structural shortcomings. This will then give the banks better confidence in real value and also a fallback position if there is indeed a problem with a property that only becomes evident after exchange of contracts. Some of the properties currently on the market would see their values slashed by 50% or more as the idiotic valuations that have somehow been achieved would be exposed for the sheer fantasy that they truly are.

Coupled with this I would also suggest that, as in Scotland for example, the only licensed agents of property are lawyers. Some might suggest that this would encourage croneyism but in reality lawyers are one of the most regulated groups of professionals and it would be very much in their interests to keep the business clean.

The market has a long way to go down yet before it bottoms out and starts to recover. Maybe a few basic structural changes to the industry would make the effects of any future crisis less painful as at least the market would be falling from a realistic level! Also the expectations of investors would be far more straightforward to satisfy.

Zand | 19.09.2008 23:30

svetlana/filip, Estonian morons have no business ethics whatsoever. They are even proud of it, as they think they have learned capitalism better than Russians have.

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Zand (13:10)

Brenda | 18.09.2008 21:53

Kris - what kinds of apartments are you looking at that people are declining your offers? What part of town are you interested in living in?

Are you only interested in renting, or perhaps purchasing an apartment? I have a 2-bedroom apartment for sale. If you are interested, send me an e-mail. (mitchell@evk.ee)

I look at the "soov" section of the ads - at kv.ee and kuldnebörs - it's interesting to me that on average there are 5 or 6 new requests for people wanting to rent or buy something every day. People seem to be wanting to purchase or rent, but their ads stay up for weeks. Are they just not finding things in the right price range, or are they just wanting something very specific?

I find the whole real estate buying and selling process fascinating - I guess that's why all the questions.

Paul - how are you doing?

Brenda

Kris | 18.09.2008 19:34

I check city24 on a regular basis and see the same apartments for rent week after week. I have sent a few emails with offers (usually 2000-3000 EEK lower than demanded) but they were declined. Instead of accepting a lower rent price and earn some money, they keep the same apartments online, losing money month by month. That has made we wonder: Is something wrong with these peoples brains? Isn't it better to earn SOME money every month than nothing?

I wonder when these people will wake up.

svetlana | 17.09.2008 23:50

here an example how real estate people handle
From: maire.luks@luksholding.ee
To: vanlerberghefilip@hotmail.com
Subject: Re: admiral house
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2008 16:17:50 +0300



Hi Filip,
Owner of Ahtri 6A rental apartment accepted your candidature.
Please send me for the agreement your details:
1) full names the both filip vanlerberghe svetlana alsauskiene
2) birth date 13.01.1963 29.05.1975
3) passport /ID carte number
4) permanent address in your home (parents) pierebeekstraat 20 2610 wilrijk belgium vilde tee 58-48 13421 tallinn
5) bank account number - why you need my bankaccount nr, this is violatiun of the private law. i pay my bills on time and you can see when we transfer from where money is comming from
6) starting date, finishing date 1.10 for 1 year.
7) contacts 56731189/53466650

I can send a project of the rental agreement after your details are received.

Best regards,
Maire

AND TODAY
after visiting with girlfriend :

Re: admiral house‏
Van: Maire Luks (maire.luks@luksholding.ee)
Verzonden: woensdag 17 september 2008 19:18:30
Aan: filip vanlerberghe (vanlerberghefilip@hotmail.com)

Hi filip,

Unfortunately we got a better offer from other clients and the owner made his choise.

Regards,

Maire Luks


this is how fucking estonians work.
absolutely not trustable.

Swedboy | 30.08.2008 22:09

My guess of a 50% drop in the prices are based on :

1. Onsold apartment in new production. The is a lot apartment and apatment blocks that is built in 2004 and forward that NOBODY still has moved in to! (Investors :)?!.

2. Awerage incomes for common people (not forengers). The normal income for a person living in Tallinn, is not enoght to by a shitty one room apartment i Lasnamää, for todays asking prices.

3. Price for renting an apartment is approximently 1/3 of what it would cost to buy the same apartment. Look for examle how much it cost per month to rent an apartment in Old City and in a new boulding in City area. Then look what they are asking for the SAME apartment to sell!!!
Where is the logic?
One of the main thing, when you invest in an apartment or house for renting out, should be that you cower your costs and that you can make a profit on your investment.

As Paul in wrighting "It will always come back to supply and demand.". That is correct and thats why I think that the prices will fall at least 50% to get people with "normal estonian incomes" to be able to buy again.

The realaste market in Tallinn has been based upon speculation and NOT normal people that need to buy an apartment to live in. Now the "investors" has moved out and the most greedy or the must unlucky will bee the ones that have to take the fall in this one.

Paul | 24.08.2008 15:12

I think the next 12 months will tell a lot. However, I see a further correction of 10-20% as more than enough to give stability back to the market. The global credit crisis should have seen its worst at that stage and inflation will come back to more modest levels aswell. Interest rates will also start dropping again from probably the middle of next year so consumer confidence will return at that point. It will always come back to supply and demand. There is already value to be had once you know what to look for. Whether you are looking to be a homeowner or an investor if you are in for the long haul you won't go too far wrong. That being said I would still be waiting a little while longer before I purchased again!

Zand | 24.08.2008 13:10

Swedboy, your estimate (50+% drop) is feasible. However, I don't think it will happen in 12 months, it probably takes a bit longer. I would say 18-24 months of slow downhill at the end of which prices are 50% off the current level.

Swedboy | 20.08.2008 18:33

This is what I think will happen...
The market will during nextcomming period of 12 months, will drop back to the level as 2003.

This means in short that the asked prices today will drop at least 50% more.

Link to statistiks:
http://pub.stat.ee/px-web.2001/Dialog...


Don't buy now!!!

thinkbank | 18.08.2008 23:54

Stagnating economy plus excessive inventories at bloated prices - all this means only one thing - a huge correction is coming. Estonians have not been through the kind of real estate corrections that took place in US and more recently in Spain. I am guessing 40-50% drop in value over the next two years and then a very gradual climb back. The longer the pause before the drop, the more cataclysmic the drop will be. There is no financial data to justify the present state of the market, people are just holding out, but that is not going to happen much longer.

Phil | 16.08.2008 22:25

Interesting forum. A lot of good advice here.
Dont worry what goes round comes round.
Hold if you can. Buy later, not now

In the business | 12.08.2008 17:59

Rents on smaller apartments have gone down but its hard to find good large apartments and these rents are stable. Its not just Estonia that is going through a tough time but the whole world so just hang in their. Have seen it all before as I have lived in Australia most of my life and now in Estonia 11 years it will come back again. Just need to be optimistic.

Didrik | 24.07.2008 21:38

Dear Mr. Abeche, I think this site is a good way to start to look for a apartment to rent. Hope you will have a nice stay in Estonia.

Samalt IP-aadressilt on selle teema all kommenteerinud veel: Didrik (22:44)

mbah martin abeche | 14.07.2008 15:26

hi my friend
it nice to hear this i have been thing of how to get to estonia and were to stay.i want if you can give me an invite me over there for at list two months.if that will be possible pl's tell me the cost of the livingroom per month.becuse it will be better for me to stay there than to live in a hotel .so my friend i will be very greatful to hear from you as soon as possible.
may the blessing of the lord be with you as you read this.have a nice time hope to see you .
bye.

Zand | 14.07.2008 13:38

Kevin, I partly agree with Didrik. The prices are falling - but they will continue to fall at least until the end of next year. The economic indicators don't support increasing demand prior to 2010 and Estonians can't afford to take more housing loans - not that they would be given any.